Tories united behind Kemi Badenoch but must win over voters

It is Kemi Badenoch's Conservative Party now. Implicitly and explicitly, that was the message from the Tories' annual conference, which has wrapped up in Birmingham. It is a party very much united around her, with no murmurings of dissent about her leadership, which is quite the contrast from a year ago. The pivot point in her time as Conservative leader so far came in her address to this same gathering 12 months back, when, amid constant chatter about the prospect of rivals seeking to topple her, she won over the party faithful with an address that oozed confidence.

Fast forward to now and there was a familiar drill. There was plenty of chat throughout the conference of a new policy coming on inheritance tax, and, sure enough, another page was missing towards the end of her speech detailing her plan on that. The plan reopens the fascinating politics and psychology of inheritance tax, which is paid by fewer than one in 20 people but has been described as the country's most unpopular tax.

Why is it so controversial? Advocates of cutting or scrapping it say it is because plenty aspire to one day being rich enough to end up having to pay it, plus it is viewed as a second tax on already taxed income. But the Conservatives' opponents were already looking forward to the argument they anticipated after it. Reform UK, for instance, claim it is a tax cut for multi-millionaires and that their plan to cut income tax for millions will benefit far more people.

The Institute For Fiscal Studies said the biggest beneficiaries would be a very well off group, mainly living in London and the south east of England. It also said it would encourage wealthy people to buy or stay in more expensive homes in their later years. The proportion of estates subject to inheritance tax is rising rapidly, though forecasts remain uncertain because they depend on fluctuating house prices.

The Conservatives estimate their inheritance policy change would cost around six billion pounds a year. They claim to have identified seventy-one billion pounds worth of cuts that can be made to government spending, including thirty-six billion pounds a year from benefits and welfare. The largest savings are projected to come from reforming sickness and disability benefits, where the party believes it can save thirteen point seven billion pounds a year, alongside savings from ending access to benefits for non-European Union nationals and changes to housing benefits.

Critics immediately pushed back against these fiscal proposals. Labor figures and other commentators pointed out that promising this scale of tax cuts risks destabilizing public finances. Policy announcements aside, what stood out in this conference was the broader strategic question facing the opposition. The veteran Conservative elections strategist Sir Lynton Crosby once suggested the party ought to scrape the barnacles off the boat, referring to unpopular policies and baggage. While Badenoch has successfully unified her parliamentary and grassroots supporters, the fundamental challenge remains: how to translate internal party alignment into broad electoral appeal that can overcome significant deficits in current opinion polls.

In conclusion, the Birmingham conference highlighted a revitalized and cohesive Conservative leadership under Kemi Badenoch. Yet, the path forward involves navigating intense scrutiny over proposed tax cuts and public spending reductions. To truly threaten the current political landscape, the Conservatives must convince a skeptical wider electorate that their economic vision is both credible and beneficial beyond their traditional base.