Tom Cruise film Digger forecast to become a major Hollywood flop

Tom Cruise's latest film Digger is expected to lose around $245 million, according to Hollywood analysts, following the movie's continuing poor performance at the box office. Ticket sales for the satirical black comedy, which stars Cruise as oil magnate Digger Rockwell, dropped by around 60% in the movie's second weekend in cinemas, bringing its total global takings so far to around $35 million.

The film is estimated to have cost its studio, Warner Bros, around $280 million to make and market. Despite the disappointing figures, Cruise stated last week that he never focuses on opening weekend numbers when making films, but rather on creating stories that will translate, last, and evolve over time.

However, the film's box office takings relative to its massive budget mean it could become one of the biggest film flops in Hollywood history. This places Digger in the same unfortunate financial bracket as historical box office disasters such as Cutthroat Island, The Adventures of Pluto Nash, Sahara, and John Carter, as well as more recent misfires like Amsterdam and The Marvels.

Digger's weak performance stands in sharp contrast to the massive success of major action franchises starring Cruise in recent years, including blockbuster instalments of Top Gun and Mission: Impossible. Industry trade publication Variety reported that Digger is expected to wrap up its theatrical run with approximately $50 million worldwide.

To break even, the film would ideally need around $350 million, factoring in production costs, global marketing, the percentage of ticket sales retained by theater owners, and potential expenses for an awards season campaign. A Warner Bros spokesperson pushed back slightly on these numbers, noting to Variety that the true break-even threshold was closer to $300 million.

Digger represents the final standalone release for Warner Bros prior to its recent corporate takeover by Paramount. Directed by acclaimed filmmaker Alejandro G Iñárritu, known for hits like Birdman and The Revenant, the movie received largely unfavorable reviews from critics. In response to the poor critical reception, the studio attempted to salvage the release by launching a new marketing campaign encouraging audiences to decide for themselves.

Meanwhile, other high-profile releases have also struggled at the global box office. Aaron Sorkin's The Social Reckoning, a sequel to the Oscar-winning hit The Social Network starring Mikey Madison, Jeremy Strong, and Jeremy Allen White, opened to disappointing numbers. The film took just $5.5 million in the United States during its opening weekend, a steep decline compared to its predecessor's $22 million debut in 2010.

Globally, The Social Reckoning brought in roughly $9 million. The drama follows the real-life story of a Facebook engineer who leaked internal documents out of concern for company practices. As the industry navigates changing audience habits, both Digger and The Social Reckoning highlight the unpredictable and high-stakes nature of modern Hollywood greenlights.